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Hindsight Bias

The tendency to consider an event more probable than it really is when we recall it

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Authors
Title
Year
Source title
Volume
Cited by
DOI
Hawkins, S.A., Hastie, R.
Hindsight: Biased Judgments of Past Events After the Outcomes Are Known
1990
Psychological Bulletin
107
532
10.1037//0033-2909.107.3.311
Stanovich, K.E., West, R.F.
Individual Differences in Rational Thought
1998
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
127
436
10.1037/0096-3445.127.2.161
Dekker, S.
The field guide to understanding human error
2013
The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error
427
Guthrie, C., Rachlinski, J.J., Wistrich, A.J.
Inside the judicial mind
2001
Cornell Law Review
86
308
Nosek, B.A., Ebersole, C.R., DeHaven, A.C., Mellor, D.T.
The preregistration revolution
2018
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of
115
270
10.1073/pnas.1708274114
Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J., Willham, C.F.
The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis
1991
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process
48
258
10.1016/0749-5978(91)90010-Q
Dougherty, M.R.P., Gettys, C.F., Ogden, E.E.
MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood
1999
Psychological Review
106
235
10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.180
Kubany, E.S., Abueg, F.R., Brennan, J.M., Haynes, S.N., Manke, F.P., Stahura, C.
Development and validation of the Trauma-Related Guilt Inventory (TRGI)
1996
Psychological Assessment
8
222
10.1037/1040-3590.8.4.428
Arkes, H.R.
Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact
1981
Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology
49
218
10.1037/0022-006X.49.3.323
Toneatto, T.
Cognitive psychopathology of problem gambling
1999
Substance Use and Misuse
34
199
10.3109/10826089909039417
Thompson, S.C., Armstrong, W., Thomas, C.
Illusions of Control, Underestimations, and Accuracy: A Control Heuristic Explanation
1998
Psychological Bulletin
123
197
10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143
Saposnik, G., Redelmeier, D., Ruff, C.C., Tobler, P.N.
Cognitive biases associated with medical decisions: a systematic review
2016
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
16
188
10.1186/s12911-016-0377-1
Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., Gigerenzer, G.
Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?
2000
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor
26
174
10.1037/0278-7393.26.3.566
Arkes, H.R., Faust, D., Guilmette, T.J., Hart, K.
Eliminating the Hindsight Bias
1988
Journal of Applied Psychology
73
174
10.1037/0021-9010.73.2.305
Baron, R.A.
Counterfactual thinking and venture formation: The potential effects of thinking about "what might h
2000
Journal of Business Venturing
15
169
10.1016/S0883-9026(98)00024-X
Roese, N.J., Vohs, K.D.
Hindsight Bias
2012
Perspectives on Psychological Science
7
162
10.1177/1745691612454303
Arkes, H.R., Wortmann, R.L., Saville, P.D., Harkness, A.R.
Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses
1981
Journal of Applied Psychology
66
161
10.1037/0021-9010.66.2.252
Choi, I., Nisbett, R.E.
Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction
2000
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
79
159
10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.890
Hardt, O., Einarsson, E.O., Nader, K.
A bridge over troubled water: Reconsolidation as a link between cognitive and neuroscientific memory
2010
Annual Review of Psychology
61
146
10.1146/annurev.psych.093008.100455
Roese, N.J., Olson, J.M.
Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration
1996
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
32
144
10.1006/jesp.1996.0010

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Autori

Hawkins, S.A., Hastie, R.

Titolo

Hindsight: Biased Judgments of Past Events After the Outcomes Are Known

Anno

1990

Source Title

Psychological Bulletin

Volume

107

Cited by

532

DOI

10.1037//0033-2909.107.3.311


Autori

Stanovich, K.E., West, R.F.

Titolo

Individual Differences in Rational Thought

Anno

1998

Source Title

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

Volume

127

Cited by

436

DOI

10.1037/0096-3445.127.2.161


Autori

Dekker, S.

Titolo

The field guide to understanding human error

Anno

2013

Source Title

The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error

Volume

Cited by

427

DOI


Autori

Guthrie, C., Rachlinski, J.J., Wistrich, A.J.

Titolo

Inside the judicial mind

Anno

2001

Source Title

Cornell Law Review

Volume

86

Cited by

308

DOI


Autori

Nosek, B.A., Ebersole, C.R., DeHaven, A.C., Mellor, D.T.

Titolo

The preregistration revolution

Anno

2018

Source Title

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of

Volume

115

Cited by

270

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1708274114


Autori

Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J., Willham, C.F.

Titolo

The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis

Anno

1991

Source Title

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process

Volume

48

Cited by

258

DOI

10.1016/0749-5978(91)90010-Q


Autori

Dougherty, M.R.P., Gettys, C.F., Ogden, E.E.

Titolo

MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood

Anno

1999

Source Title

Psychological Review

Volume

106

Cited by

235

DOI

10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.180


Autori

Kubany, E.S., Abueg, F.R., Brennan, J.M., Haynes, S.N., Manke, F.P., Stahura, C.

Titolo

Development and validation of the Trauma-Related Guilt Inventory (TRGI)

Anno

1996

Source Title

Psychological Assessment

Volume

8

Cited by

222

DOI

10.1037/1040-3590.8.4.428


Autori

Arkes, H.R.

Titolo

Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact

Anno

1981

Source Title

Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology

Volume

49

Cited by

218

DOI

10.1037/0022-006X.49.3.323


Autori

Toneatto, T.

Titolo

Cognitive psychopathology of problem gambling

Anno

1999

Source Title

Substance Use and Misuse

Volume

34

Cited by

199

DOI

10.3109/10826089909039417


Autori

Thompson, S.C., Armstrong, W., Thomas, C.

Titolo

Illusions of Control, Underestimations, and Accuracy: A Control Heuristic Explanation

Anno

1998

Source Title

Psychological Bulletin

Volume

123

Cited by

197

DOI

10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143


Autori

Saposnik, G., Redelmeier, D., Ruff, C.C., Tobler, P.N.

Titolo

Cognitive biases associated with medical decisions: a systematic review

Anno

2016

Source Title

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Volume

16

Cited by

188

DOI

10.1186/s12911-016-0377-1


Autori

Hoffrage, U., Hertwig, R., Gigerenzer, G.

Titolo

Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

Anno

2000

Source Title

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor

Volume

26

Cited by

174

DOI

10.1037/0278-7393.26.3.566


Autori

Arkes, H.R., Faust, D., Guilmette, T.J., Hart, K.

Titolo

Eliminating the Hindsight Bias

Anno

1988

Source Title

Journal of Applied Psychology

Volume

73

Cited by

174

DOI

10.1037/0021-9010.73.2.305


Autori

Baron, R.A.

Titolo

Counterfactual thinking and venture formation: The potential effects of thinking about "what might h

Anno

2000

Source Title

Journal of Business Venturing

Volume

15

Cited by

169

DOI

10.1016/S0883-9026(98)00024-X


Autori

Roese, N.J., Vohs, K.D.

Titolo

Hindsight Bias

Anno

2012

Source Title

Perspectives on Psychological Science

Volume

7

Cited by

162

DOI

10.1177/1745691612454303


Autori

Arkes, H.R., Wortmann, R.L., Saville, P.D., Harkness, A.R.

Titolo

Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses

Anno

1981

Source Title

Journal of Applied Psychology

Volume

66

Cited by

161

DOI

10.1037/0021-9010.66.2.252


Autori

Choi, I., Nisbett, R.E.

Titolo

Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction

Anno

2000

Source Title

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Volume

79

Cited by

159

DOI

10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.890


Autori

Hardt, O., Einarsson, E.O., Nader, K.

Titolo

A bridge over troubled water: Reconsolidation as a link between cognitive and neuroscientific memory

Anno

2010

Source Title

Annual Review of Psychology

Volume

61

Cited by

146

DOI

10.1146/annurev.psych.093008.100455


Autori

Roese, N.J., Olson, J.M.

Titolo

Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration

Anno

1996

Source Title

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

Volume

32

Cited by

144

DOI

10.1006/jesp.1996.0010