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Overconfidence Bias

We tend to overestimate our abilities and to be overconfident

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Authors
Title
Year
Source title
Volume
Cited by
DOI
Gigerenzer G.
How to make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”
1991
European Review of Social Psychology
2
488
10.1080/14792779143000033
Forbes D.P.
Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?
2005
Journal of Business Venturing
20
302
10.1016/j.jbusvent.2004.05.001
Juslin P., Winman A., Olsson H.
Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effec
2000
Psychological Review
107
213
10.1037/0033-295X.107.2.384
Koriat A.
The self-consistency model of subjective confidence
2012
Psychological Review
119
145
10.1037/a0025648
Finn B.
Framing effects on metacognitive monitoring and control
2008
Memory and Cognition
36
71
10.3758/MC.36.4.813
Stankov L., Lee J.
Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance
2008
Journal of Educational Psychology
100
68
10.1037/a0012546
Carpenter S.K., Olson K.M.
Are pictures good for learning new vocabulary in a foreign language? only if you think they are not
2012
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor
38
51
10.1037/a0024828
Winman A., Hansson P., Juslin P.
Subjective probability intervals: How to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation
2004
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor
30
48
10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167
Camargo S.J., Barnston A.G.
Experimental dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI
2009
Weather and Forecasting
24
47
10.1175/2008WAF2007099.1
Mehle T., Gettys C.F., Manning C., Baca S., Fisher S.
The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments
1981
Acta Psychologica
49
44
10.1016/0001-6918(81)90024-X
WINMAN A., JUSLIN P.
Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: Two different accounts
1993
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology
34
42
10.1111/j.1467-9450.1993.tb01109.x
Swami V., Furnham A., Georgiades C., Pang L.
Evaluating self and partner physical attractiveness
2007
Body Image
4
38
10.1016/j.bodyim.2006.10.003
Lee J.M., Hwang B.-H., Chen H.
Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies
2017
Strategic Management Journal
38
34
10.1002/smj.2519
Sulistyawati K., Wickens C.D., Chui Y.P.
Prediction in situation awareness: Confidence bias and underlying cognitiv abilities
2011
International Journal of Aviation Psychology
21
34
10.1080/10508414.2011.556492
Desmond N.G., Westgren R., Sonka S.
Competitive blind spots in an institutional field
2009
Strategic Management Journal
30
33
10.1002/smj.741
Subbotin V.
Outcome feedback effects on under- and overconfident judgments (general knowledge tasks)
1996
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process
66
30
10.1006/obhd.1996.0055
Miller D.J., Spengler E.S., Spengler P.M.
A meta-analysis of confidence and judgment accuracy in clinical decision making
2015
Journal of Counseling Psychology
62
28
10.1037/cou0000105
Lichtendahl Jr. K.C., Winkler R.L.
Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters
2007
Management Science
53
28
10.1287/mnsc.1070.0729
Teovanović P., Knežević G., Stankov L.
Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against one-factor theory of rationality
2015
Intelligence
50
26
10.1016/j.intell.2015.02.008
Tan W.-K., Tan C.-H., Teo H.-H.
Consumer-based decision aid that explains which to buy: Decision confirmation or overconfidence bias
2012
Decision Support Systems
53
26
10.1016/j.dss.2011.12.010

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Autori

Gigerenzer G.

Titolo

How to make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”

Anno

1991

Source Title

European Review of Social Psychology

Volume

2

Cited by

488

DOI

10.1080/14792779143000033


Autori

Forbes D.P.

Titolo

Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?

Anno

2005

Source Title

Journal of Business Venturing

Volume

20

Cited by

302

DOI

10.1016/j.jbusvent.2004.05.001


Autori

Juslin P., Winman A., Olsson H.

Titolo

Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effec

Anno

2000

Source Title

Psychological Review

Volume

107

Cited by

213

DOI

10.1037/0033-295X.107.2.384


Autori

Koriat A.

Titolo

The self-consistency model of subjective confidence

Anno

2012

Source Title

Psychological Review

Volume

119

Cited by

145

DOI

10.1037/a0025648


Autori

Finn B.

Titolo

Framing effects on metacognitive monitoring and control

Anno

2008

Source Title

Memory and Cognition

Volume

36

Cited by

71

DOI

10.3758/MC.36.4.813


Autori

Stankov L., Lee J.

Titolo

Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

Anno

2008

Source Title

Journal of Educational Psychology

Volume

100

Cited by

68

DOI

10.1037/a0012546


Autori

Carpenter S.K., Olson K.M.

Titolo

Are pictures good for learning new vocabulary in a foreign language? only if you think they are not

Anno

2012

Source Title

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor

Volume

38

Cited by

51

DOI

10.1037/a0024828


Autori

Winman A., Hansson P., Juslin P.

Titolo

Subjective probability intervals: How to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation

Anno

2004

Source Title

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memor

Volume

30

Cited by

48

DOI

10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167


Autori

Camargo S.J., Barnston A.G.

Titolo

Experimental dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI

Anno

2009

Source Title

Weather and Forecasting

Volume

24

Cited by

47

DOI

10.1175/2008WAF2007099.1


Autori

Mehle T., Gettys C.F., Manning C., Baca S., Fisher S.

Titolo

The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

Anno

1981

Source Title

Acta Psychologica

Volume

49

Cited by

44

DOI

10.1016/0001-6918(81)90024-X


Autori

WINMAN A., JUSLIN P.

Titolo

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: Two different accounts

Anno

1993

Source Title

Scandinavian Journal of Psychology

Volume

34

Cited by

42

DOI

10.1111/j.1467-9450.1993.tb01109.x


Autori

Swami V., Furnham A., Georgiades C., Pang L.

Titolo

Evaluating self and partner physical attractiveness

Anno

2007

Source Title

Body Image

Volume

4

Cited by

38

DOI

10.1016/j.bodyim.2006.10.003


Autori

Lee J.M., Hwang B.-H., Chen H.

Titolo

Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies

Anno

2017

Source Title

Strategic Management Journal

Volume

38

Cited by

34

DOI

10.1002/smj.2519


Autori

Sulistyawati K., Wickens C.D., Chui Y.P.

Titolo

Prediction in situation awareness: Confidence bias and underlying cognitiv abilities

Anno

2011

Source Title

International Journal of Aviation Psychology

Volume

21

Cited by

34

DOI

10.1080/10508414.2011.556492


Autori

Desmond N.G., Westgren R., Sonka S.

Titolo

Competitive blind spots in an institutional field

Anno

2009

Source Title

Strategic Management Journal

Volume

30

Cited by

33

DOI

10.1002/smj.741


Autori

Subbotin V.

Titolo

Outcome feedback effects on under- and overconfident judgments (general knowledge tasks)

Anno

1996

Source Title

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process

Volume

66

Cited by

30

DOI

10.1006/obhd.1996.0055


Autori

Miller D.J., Spengler E.S., Spengler P.M.

Titolo

A meta-analysis of confidence and judgment accuracy in clinical decision making

Anno

2015

Source Title

Journal of Counseling Psychology

Volume

62

Cited by

28

DOI

10.1037/cou0000105


Autori

Lichtendahl Jr. K.C., Winkler R.L.

Titolo

Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters

Anno

2007

Source Title

Management Science

Volume

53

Cited by

28

DOI

10.1287/mnsc.1070.0729


Autori

Teovanović P., Knežević G., Stankov L.

Titolo

Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against one-factor theory of rationality

Anno

2015

Source Title

Intelligence

Volume

50

Cited by

26

DOI

10.1016/j.intell.2015.02.008


Autori

Tan W.-K., Tan C.-H., Teo H.-H.

Titolo

Consumer-based decision aid that explains which to buy: Decision confirmation or overconfidence bias

Anno

2012

Source Title

Decision Support Systems

Volume

53

Cited by

26

DOI

10.1016/j.dss.2011.12.010