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Probabilistic Reasoning and Conjunction Fallacy

There is the tendency to overestimate the probability of joint events and underestimate disjointed events

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Authors
Title
Year
Source title
Volume
Cited by
DOI
Gigerenzer, G.
How to make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”
1991
European Review of Social Psychology
2
488
10.1080/14792779143000033
Sanborn, A.N., Chater, N.
Bayesian Brains without Probabilities
2016
Trends in Cognitive Sciences
20
60
10.1016/j.tics.2016.10.003
Dagnall, N., Parker, A., Munley, G.
Paranormal belief and reasoning
2007
Personality and Individual Differences
43
39
10.1016/j.paid.2007.04.017
Rogers, P., Davis, T., Fisk, J.
Paranormal belief and susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy
2009
Applied Cognitive Psychology
23
32
10.1002/acp.1472
Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Rowley, K.
Misperception of chance, conjunction, belief in the paranormal and reality testing: A reappraisal
2014
Applied Cognitive Psychology
28
28
10.1002/acp.3057
Tentori, K., Crupi, V.
On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to Hertwig, Benz, and Krauss (
2012
Cognition
122
21
10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.002
Dagnall, N., Denovan, A., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Clough, P.
Toward a better understanding of the relationship between belief in the paranormal and statistical b
2016
Frontiers in Psychology
7
17
10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01045
Feeney, A., Shafto, P., Dunning, D.
Who is susceptible to conjunction fallacies in category-based induction?
2007
Psychonomic Bulletin and Review
14
16
10.3758/BF03194116
Costello, F.J.
Fallacies in probability judgments for conjunctions and disjunctions of everyday events
2009
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
22
11
10.1002/bdm.623
Denovan, A., Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Clough, P.
Perception of risk and terrorism-related behavior change: Dual influences of probabilistic reasoning
2017
Frontiers in Psychology
8
10
10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01721
Fisk, J.E.
Age and probabilistic reasoning: Biases in conjunctive, disjunctive and bayesian judgements in early
2005
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
18
10
10.1002/bdm.488
Prike, T., Arnold, M.M., Williamson, P.
Psychics, aliens, or experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to examine the relationship betw
2017
Consciousness and Cognition
53
8
10.1016/j.concog.2017.06.003
Crisp, A.K., Feeney, A.
Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources
2009
Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology
62
8
10.1080/17470210902783638
Chiesi, F., Gronchi, G., Primi, C.
Age-trend-related differences in tasks involving conjunctive probabilistic reasoning
2008
Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology
62
8
10.1037/1196-1961.62.3.188
Denovan, A., Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A.
Latent profile analysis of schizotypy and paranormal belief: Associations with probabilistic reasoni
2018
Frontiers in Psychology
9
6
10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00035
Costello, F., Watts, P.
Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winma
2016
Psychological Review
123
6
10.1037/rev0000018
Rogers, P., Fisk, J.E., Lowrie, E.
Paranormal belief and errors of probabilistic reasoning: The role of constituent conditional related
2017
Consciousness and Cognition
56
3
10.1016/j.concog.2017.09.010
Morsanyi, K., Chiesi, F., Primi, C., Szűcs, D.
The illusion of replacement in research into the development of thinking biases: the case of the con
2017
Journal of Cognitive Psychology
29
3
10.1080/20445911.2016.1256294
Nahinsky, I.D., Ash, D., Cohen, B.
The conjunction fallacy: Judgmental heuristic or faulty extensional reasoning?
1986
Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society
24
3
10.3758/BF03330544
Kostovičová, L.
The differential effects of good luck belief on cognitive performance in boys and girls
2019
Europe's Journal of Psychology
15
1
10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1697

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Autori

Gigerenzer, G.

Titolo

How to make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”

Anno

1991

Source Title

European Review of Social Psychology

Volume

2

Cited by

488

DOI

10.1080/14792779143000033


Autori

Sanborn, A.N., Chater, N.

Titolo

Bayesian Brains without Probabilities

Anno

2016

Source Title

Trends in Cognitive Sciences

Volume

20

Cited by

60

DOI

10.1016/j.tics.2016.10.003


Autori

Dagnall, N., Parker, A., Munley, G.

Titolo

Paranormal belief and reasoning

Anno

2007

Source Title

Personality and Individual Differences

Volume

43

Cited by

39

DOI

10.1016/j.paid.2007.04.017


Autori

Rogers, P., Davis, T., Fisk, J.

Titolo

Paranormal belief and susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy

Anno

2009

Source Title

Applied Cognitive Psychology

Volume

23

Cited by

32

DOI

10.1002/acp.1472


Autori

Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Rowley, K.

Titolo

Misperception of chance, conjunction, belief in the paranormal and reality testing: A reappraisal

Anno

2014

Source Title

Applied Cognitive Psychology

Volume

28

Cited by

28

DOI

10.1002/acp.3057


Autori

Tentori, K., Crupi, V.

Titolo

On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to Hertwig, Benz, and Krauss (

Anno

2012

Source Title

Cognition

Volume

122

Cited by

21

DOI

10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.002


Autori

Dagnall, N., Denovan, A., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Clough, P.

Titolo

Toward a better understanding of the relationship between belief in the paranormal and statistical b

Anno

2016

Source Title

Frontiers in Psychology

Volume

7

Cited by

17

DOI

10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01045


Autori

Feeney, A., Shafto, P., Dunning, D.

Titolo

Who is susceptible to conjunction fallacies in category-based induction?

Anno

2007

Source Title

Psychonomic Bulletin and Review

Volume

14

Cited by

16

DOI

10.3758/BF03194116


Autori

Costello, F.J.

Titolo

Fallacies in probability judgments for conjunctions and disjunctions of everyday events

Anno

2009

Source Title

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Volume

22

Cited by

11

DOI

10.1002/bdm.623


Autori

Denovan, A., Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A., Clough, P.

Titolo

Perception of risk and terrorism-related behavior change: Dual influences of probabilistic reasoning

Anno

2017

Source Title

Frontiers in Psychology

Volume

8

Cited by

10

DOI

10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01721


Autori

Fisk, J.E.

Titolo

Age and probabilistic reasoning: Biases in conjunctive, disjunctive and bayesian judgements in early

Anno

2005

Source Title

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Volume

18

Cited by

10

DOI

10.1002/bdm.488


Autori

Prike, T., Arnold, M.M., Williamson, P.

Titolo

Psychics, aliens, or experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to examine the relationship betw

Anno

2017

Source Title

Consciousness and Cognition

Volume

53

Cited by

8

DOI

10.1016/j.concog.2017.06.003


Autori

Crisp, A.K., Feeney, A.

Titolo

Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources

Anno

2009

Source Title

Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

Volume

62

Cited by

8

DOI

10.1080/17470210902783638


Autori

Chiesi, F., Gronchi, G., Primi, C.

Titolo

Age-trend-related differences in tasks involving conjunctive probabilistic reasoning

Anno

2008

Source Title

Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology

Volume

62

Cited by

8

DOI

10.1037/1196-1961.62.3.188


Autori

Denovan, A., Dagnall, N., Drinkwater, K., Parker, A.

Titolo

Latent profile analysis of schizotypy and paranormal belief: Associations with probabilistic reasoni

Anno

2018

Source Title

Frontiers in Psychology

Volume

9

Cited by

6

DOI

10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00035


Autori

Costello, F., Watts, P.

Titolo

Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winma

Anno

2016

Source Title

Psychological Review

Volume

123

Cited by

6

DOI

10.1037/rev0000018


Autori

Rogers, P., Fisk, J.E., Lowrie, E.

Titolo

Paranormal belief and errors of probabilistic reasoning: The role of constituent conditional related

Anno

2017

Source Title

Consciousness and Cognition

Volume

56

Cited by

3

DOI

10.1016/j.concog.2017.09.010


Autori

Morsanyi, K., Chiesi, F., Primi, C., Szűcs, D.

Titolo

The illusion of replacement in research into the development of thinking biases: the case of the con

Anno

2017

Source Title

Journal of Cognitive Psychology

Volume

29

Cited by

3

DOI

10.1080/20445911.2016.1256294


Autori

Nahinsky, I.D., Ash, D., Cohen, B.

Titolo

The conjunction fallacy: Judgmental heuristic or faulty extensional reasoning?

Anno

1986

Source Title

Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society

Volume

24

Cited by

3

DOI

10.3758/BF03330544


Autori

Kostovičová, L.

Titolo

The differential effects of good luck belief on cognitive performance in boys and girls

Anno

2019

Source Title

Europe's Journal of Psychology

Volume

15

Cited by

1

DOI

10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1697